Sensitivity Studies of the Effects of Model Formulation on the Evaluation of Control Strategies for Photochemical Air Pollution Formation in the United Kingdom

In the OZIPP (ozone isopleth plotting package, developed by United States Environmental Protection Agency) a number of model specific assumptions with respect to chemical and physical processes are made. These assumptions are introduced into an alternative model developed at AERE Harwell, United Kingdom, in which a detailed chemistry and mixture of organic emissions is included. The impact on the AERE Harwell model results of the assumptions made in OZIPP of omitting ground removal of ozone (O₃) and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) and of employing an incomplete PAN chemistry and adopting a reaction rate coefficient of the key reaction NO + HO₂ → NO₂ + OH which is a factor 10 lower than the accepted value, are discussed. The composition of the organic emissions is an important model parameter, and it is shown how grouping of nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions into a small group of NMHC thought to be representative, often implies that O₃ and other pollutants are overestimated. The O₃ isopleth diagram for London constructed using the AERE Harwell model gives a somewhat different picture from that obtained with OZIPP. OZIPP in general predicts that NO_x control or combined hydrocarbon(HC) and NO_x control is efficient with respect to O₃ reduction whilst the AERE Harwell model predicts that HC control alone usually is more efficient than combined HC and NO_x control. Furthermore NO_x control alone may often increase the O₃ burden downwind in the AERE Harwell model.