An Appraisal of Epidemiologic Data Concerning the Effect of Oxidants,Nitrogen Dioxide and Hydrocarbons upon Human Populations

A procedure is developed for determining costs to reduce air pollution emissions in a metropolitan area. Methods are. sufficiently general to be applicable in any region and sufficiently comprehensive to include analysis of all major sources, future trends, control limitations, and other factors of importance in a dynamic community. The analytical procedure examines relationships among emission inventories, regional growth, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness.

The cost analysis procedure is tested by application to the Delaware Valley. Costs are determined for reducing emissions to various levels between the years 1960 and 2000. Emissions from private automobiles are projected to decrease below the 1960 emission rate by 1980, at a cost of 150 million dollars per year. Stationary source emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulates can be reduced to 1960 levels by 1980 for 37 million dollars per year if "least cost" procedures are used (selective abatement). Uniform conversion to 0.5% sulfur fuel oil (equiproportional abatement) can effect a similar reduction in emissions for about 94 million dollars per year in 1980. Other cost analysis comparisons are made and projections to the year 2000 are included.