首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Multivariate Stochastic Models of Sulphur Dioxide Pollution in an Urban Area
Authors:G Finz  G Fronza  A Spirito
Institution:Istituto di Elettrotecnica ed Elettronica, Centro Teoria dei Sistemi C.N.R , Politecnico , Milan , Italy
Abstract:Three multivariate stochastic mathematical models of daily SO2 pollution in an urban area (Milan, Italy) during the heating season (mid-October/end of March) are illustrated in the paper. Each model is characterized by a different number of external inputs. Precisely, the first model has no inputs (it is simply an autoregressive relationship), the second one has a temperature input (roughly accounting for emission), the third one has two inputs (temperature and wind speed). From each model a real-time predictor is derived, namely a recursive relationship which, at the end of each day, allows future pollution levels to be forecast on the basis of current concentration and meteorological measurements. The quality of the forecast is rather satisfactory, even in episode situations. The improvements in forecast performance when turning from a predictor with less external inputs to a predictor with more external inputs (i.e., when exploiting more information about meteorology) are also pointed out in the paper.
Keywords:
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号