Motor Vehicle Lead Embssbons Bo the Unfed States: An Analysis of Important Determinants,Geographic Patterns and Future Trends

This paper presents a simple method which utilizes composite emission factors to estimate motor vehicle lead emissions for large areas. Composite emission factors incorporate information on vehicle lead emission rates, sales-weighted average fuel economies, annual vehicle travel fractions, and average gasoline lead concentrations. The lead emissions estimation procedure takes as given estimates of motor vehicle travel and, hence, can be applied to any region or road system for which current or projected travel estimates are available. Estimates of motor vehicle lead emissions for major highway systems in individual states and national forecasts of motor vehicle lead emissions for six potential scenarios regarding the future use of lead additives in gasoline are presented to demonstrate the application of the method.