高原内陆河流域气候水文突变与生态演变规律——以内蒙古锡林河和巴拉格尔河流域为例

以内蒙古锡林河和巴拉格尔河流域为研究对象，利用数理统计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、气候倾向法、克里金空间插值等方法，综合遥感信息解译，辨析近55a不同高原内陆河流域气温-降水-径流突变与生态演变规律，结果表明：锡林河流域干旱程度较巴拉格尔河流域剧烈，气温总体偏高，降水量、径流深偏枯，降水、径流天数偏少，且径流系数偏低；锡林河流域气温增温趋势较显著，气温突变较早，两地增温速率均大于0.2℃/10a；在年尺度，两地径流系数、降水量、径流量的突变时间、顺序、驱动因素和突变前后变化量存在较大差异；在季节尺度，两地降水空间分布差异较大；两地NDVI最大值与冬季降水分布特征趋同，均分布于上游河谷区.

Identification on hydrometeorology mutation characteristics and ecological evolution pattern of the plateau inland river basin-taken Xilin river and Balager river of Inner Mongolia for instance

Taking Xilin River Basin and Balager River Basin of Inner Mongolia as typical plateau inland river basins, we analyzed the hydrometeorology mutation characteristics (e.g. air temperature, precipitation and runoff), ecological evolution pattern (e.g. normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)), and their relationship in the past 55years. Based on methods of mathematical statistics, Mann-Kendall test, climate tendency, Kriging spatial interpolation and remote sensing interpretation, the results showed compared with Balager River Basin, Xilin River Basin has a higher degree of drought, higher air temperature, smaller precipitation and runoff depth, less precipitation days and runoff days, lower runoff coefficient. In Xilin River Basin, the air temperature showed a more dramatic increasing tendency and earlier mutation year. The warming rates in both regions were beyond 0.2℃/10a. At annual scale, there were substantial difference in the mutation time and the sequence, driving factors and change values of before and after mutation time for the runoff coefficient, precipitation, and runoff between these two regions. The spatial distributions of seasonal precipitation were different between the two places exist different. The maximum NDVI of the two places were similar to the spatial distribution characteristics of winter precipitation, i.e., concentrating in the upper river valleys.