矿产资源型城市工业路径依赖综合诊断方法——基于改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数

将矿产资源和生态环境要素纳入常规的柯布-道格拉斯（C-D）生产函数,构建资源-环境-经济综合诊断方法,并应用于以煤炭经济为主的鄂尔多斯市.结果显示,2001~2015年该市综合产出弹性为0.8158,呈规模报酬递减趋势;全市工业路径依赖于2001~2007年处于综合边际收益（MR_KLME）上升过程,2008~2015年进入MR_KLME下降过程.工业增长的生态环境成本明显升高,对MR_KLME起到显著减降作用,导致MR_KLME曲线拐点较常规C-D函数法提前约2~4a.对此,建议加大生态环境保护与治理力度、实施煤炭资源开发总量和强度“双控”等路径依赖破解措施.该方法可纠正由于未考虑资源和环境效应所产生的诊断偏差,有助于更加合理、准确地诊断特定资源型城市工业发展路径依赖的演化特点,并可据此提出有针对性的破解对策.

Integrated diagnosis for industrial development path dependence of mineral resource-based cities:A study based on an improved Cobb-Douglas production function

In this study, firstly, the mineral resources, ecological and environmental elements were taken into account as input factors in the conventional C-D production function. Secondly, the method of resource-environment-economy integrated diagnosis (REEID) was established and then applied. Ordos, Inner Mongolia, whose economy has been dominated by coal extraction and utilization, was the taken as a study case. The results showed that the integrated output elasticity in Ordos from 2001 to 2015 was 0.8158, indicated the decreasing returned to scale. The industrial path dependence was in the integrated marginal revenue (MR_KLME) increasing process from 2001 to 2007, then entered the decreasing process from 2008 to 2015. The ecological and environmental cost of industry increased significantly, which reduced MR_KLME dramatically and caused the MR_KLME curve to show an inflection point decrease 2~4 years earlier than that in the conventional C-D simulation. Hence it was suggested that measures such as "double control" of the total amount and intensity of coal resources development, strengthening ecological environmental protection and governance, etc., should be employed. The REEID method could correct the diagnostic bias caused by neglecting the resource and environmental effects. It was more reasonable and accurate to diagnose the evolutionary characteristics of industrial development path dependence in resource-dependent cities. REEID method was helpful to propose effective development countermeasures.