| Abstract: | This paper reports findings from research conducted for the Environment Agency1 investigating the social distribution of the risk of flooding in England and Wales. Following a broadly outcome based analysis, and using socio-geographic modelling techniques and the 1991 Census, the social class characteristics of the population at risk from flooding were explored and compared with the population considered not at risk as a means to uncover any evidence of social inequality. The Environment Agency indicative flood plain maps (1 in 100 year return for fluvial and 1 in a 200 year return for tidal flooding) were used to identify at risk areas. Two different methods of capturing the at risk population were employed; one based on census enumeration districts and the other using surface population models which redistribute the area population over a grid surface of the area of interest. The two methods provide completely different results. The enumeration district method indicates that those in higher social classes are the most likely to be exposed to flood hazard while the grid method indicates that it is those in the lower social classes who are most at risk. We suggest that the grid method provides a more accurate analysis but highlight the significant effect that the choice of areal unit and spatial analysis can have on conclusions about the extent of any inequality in vulnerability to flooding. |
