接管高应变区缺陷的安全评定概率方法研究

随着计算机技术飞速发展，Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法在压力容器可靠性分析中得到广泛应用。但对于小概率情形，利用直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法进行失效概率计算，费用较高。为此，笔者提出了几种新的失效概率近似计算方法，并以压力容器接管为例，对其断裂失效概率进行了计算，同时还和直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法的计算数值进行了比较。结果表明，新的失效概率近似计算方法具有精度高、节省机时的优点。

Study on the Probability Methods of Safety Assessment of Defects of High Strain Zone of the Nozzle

With the rapid development of computer technology, Monte Carlo Method is widely applied in reliability analysis of the pressure vessel. But due to the low fracture failure probability of the pressure vessel, the cost used to calculate the fracture failure probability by direct Monte Carlo method is rather high. It is for this reason that several new methods for calculating the fracture failure probability are presented. They are exemplified by the nozzle of the pressure vessel , and compared with the Monte Carlo method with direct sampling. The results show that the new methods are more precise and less time consuming.