时变条件下的有害物品运输的人口风险分析

随着工业的发展 ,有害物品运输量在逐年增加 ,有害物品对于人类威胁也在加大 ,有害物品运输的风险问题受到了广泛的关注。由于有害物品运输中 ,路径周围的人口密度随着时间的变化而变化 ,进而影响在运输过程中的人口风险。笔者在有时变情况下 ,对有害物品运输人口风险进行了分析 ;建立了估计人口风险的模型 ;获得了有害物品运输中的最小人口风险以及最佳出发时间 ;进一步完善了有害物品的运输的风险分析 ;为如何减少有害物品运输的人口风险提供了依据。

Analysis of Population Risk in Hazardous Material Transportation as Time Varies

Hazardous Material Transportation is a very important issue to a country and the researchers are seriously concerned about its operation. How to determine the risk during transporting a specific hazardous material in the area between the starting point and terminal is discussed. Since the population density varies as the time varies, the population risk in the area of both route sides also varies. A model is developed for risk estimation with the variation of time to obtain the optimal starting time and minimal population risk in the process of transportation. It would be possible to minimize the risk in hazardous material transportation.