事故发生的三种模式探讨

事故就是违背人的主观愿望而发生的意外事件 ,其结果是导致社会和人类经济上的巨大损失和伤害。然而各种事故的发生的形式似乎永远伴随着人类社会的发展而有所变化。笔者通过对事故数据的分析 ,从广义上将事故分为自然事故即自然灾害、随机事故和人为事故 3类。根据 3类事故的特点采用简单的数学方程进行描述 ,为事故发生可承受度 (即既最大风险值 )奠定理论基础。从科学的角度论述事故发生的必然性、随机性和可预防性以及不安全的绝对性和安全的相对性的辩证关系。同时提出了环境因子新概念 ,初步定义了高危行业的定量含义 ,为各类事故的预防提出了基本的相应对策。

Three Basic Accident Modes

Generally speaking, the accident is referred to an event occurred unexpectedly ,in which results life and great economic loss. However, varieties of accidents seam always accompanying around the world. The accidents will happen anywhere. Through the analysis of the accident data, in broad sense, accidents are categorized into three modes, i.e. inevitable accident-natural catastrophe, random accident and man-made accident. These accident modes are described by mathematical equation and discussed in detail, which lay the theoretical foundation for the endurance of accident occurrence, the maximum risk value. Regarding to an accident, it might be inevitable, random or avoidable. A concept of circumstance factor is put forward, by which the quantitative definition of high risk industry is defined. Basic countermeasures for various accidents are also put forward.