基于蒙特卡罗模拟的农用地土壤健康风险评价

为科学合理地评价农用地土壤健康风险，基于USEPA的环境风险评价体系，针对我国农用地土壤污染特征，建立农用地土壤健康风险评价模型，并引入蒙特卡罗模拟降低风险评价结果的不确定性。区域农用地土壤重金属的健康风险评价结果表明，该农用地造成的总致癌风险CR服从对数正态分布，为（2.898±2.425）×10-4，总危害指数HQ服从对数正态分布，为15.775±13.797；确定土壤的优先控制污染物为As，优先控制暴露途径为经口摄入。该模型适用于农用地多项污染物对人体的健康风险评价，并能得到优先控制因子和优先控制暴露途径等关键信息。

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL LAND BASED ON MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND ITS APPLICATION

In order to scientifically and reasonably assess the soil health risks of agricultural land, based on the environmental risk assessment system of the US Environmental Protection Agency, this paper established a soil health risk assessment model for agricultural land use in China. Monte Carlo simulations were also introduced to reduce the uncertainty of risk assessment results. The health risk assessment results of heavy metals in regional agricultural land soils showed that the total carcinogenic risk CR caused by the agricultural land obeyed a log-normal distribution, which was (2.898±2.425)×10-4, and the total hazard index HQ obeyed a log-normal distribution, which was 15.775±13.797, the priority soil control pollutant was determined to be As, and the priority control exposure route was oral route. The model was applicable to the evaluation of human health risks by multiple pollutants in agricultural land, and could obtain key information such as priority control factors and priority control for exposure routes.