崇明岛生态风险源分析及其防范对策研究

上海市城市总体规划（1999~2020年）中提出了要将崇明岛建成生态岛的发展目标，而保障崇明岛的生态安全，规避生态风险是实现这一目标以及实现经济可持续发展的重要内容。崇明岛地处长江的河口和经济最发达的长江三角洲，而且东邻东海，地理位置十分特殊，区域生态风险来源十分复杂。因此，深入分析崇明岛的生态风险源类型、来源和特征，是进一步开展生态风险评价和正确制定风险防范对策的基础。通过对崇明历史资料的分析和现状的评价，辨识出26种生态风险源，这些风险源按性质分可分为自然风险源和人为风险源两类，按来源分可分为来自流域、来自周边区域、来自海洋和来自岛屿内部4类；通过对风险源的发生概率、强度分析结果，结合各风险源的特点，筛选出咸水入侵、台风、暴雨、风暴潮、生物入侵为崇明岛的主要风险源，并分析了其对生态系统的干扰和危害。在上述分析的基础上，提出了具体的风险防范对策。

ANALYSIS ON MAIN SOURCES OF ECO-RISK IN CHONGMING ISLAND OF YANGTZE ESTUARY WITH PROPOSAL OF ITS COUNTERMEASURES

Based on the Comprehensive Planning of Shanghai (1999~2020),the development of Chongming Island should focus on the construction of eco island. Keeping the eco safety of Chongming Island,that is,keeping away from eco risk is important for the realization of the eco island and sustainable development of the island.The location of Chongming Island is very special as it is located at the estuary of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze Delta and lies to the east of the East China Sea.Thus the eco risk sources are especially complex in Chongming Island.Analyzing the type,origin and character of eco risk sources in the island is the basis for further assessment of the eco risk and establishment of prevention countermeasures. About 26 eco risk sources were differentiated on the analysis of history data and assessment of present status of the island.These eco risk sources can be divided into natural sources and artificial sources by character,and from the Yangtze River,from circumjacent area,from the sea and from the island itself by origin.Furthermore,how the major ecological risk sources disturbed and influenced the ecosystem was also analyzed.Finally,details of eco strategies for eliminating the risk sources were provided from multiple respects.