Sensitivity of biogenic secondary organic aerosols to future climate change at regional scales: An online coupled simulation |
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| Authors: | Xiaoyan Jiang Zong-Liang Yang Hong Liao Christine Wiedinmyer |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geological Sciences, The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, 1 University Station #C1100, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712-0254, USA;2. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmosphere Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;3. The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA;1. College of Engineering, Center for Environmental Research and Technology, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA;2. Air Pollution Research Center, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA;1. Department of Environment and Energy Engineering, 77 Yongbong Ro, Buk-ku, Gwangju 500-757, Republic of Korea;2. Headquarter of Honam Region, Korea Environment Corporation, 217 Mujindae-Ro, Gwangsan-ku, Gwangju 506-813, Republic of Korea;1. Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA;2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China;3. Department of Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China;4. Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;5. The School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27607, USA;3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China;4. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;5. Research and Advanced Engineering, Ford Motor Company, Village Road, Dearborn, MI 48121, USA;6. Asia Pacific Research, Ford Motor Company, Unit 4901, Tower C, Yintai Center, Beijing 100022, China;7. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China;2. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA;3. School of Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA;4. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA;5. Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA;8. Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Patras, Greece;9. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Palea Penteli, Greece;1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Dept. of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA;3. School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA;4. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Biogenic emissions and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are strongly dependent on climatic conditions. To understand the SOA levels and their sensitivity to future climate change in the United States (U.S.), we present a modeling work with the consideration of SOA formation from the oxidation of biogenic emissions with atmospheric oxidants (e.g., OH, O3, and NO3). The model simulation for the present-day climate is evaluated against satellite and ground-based aerosol measurements. Although the model underestimates aerosol concentrations over the northwestern U.S. due to the lack of fire emissions in the model simulations, overall, the SOA results agree well with previous studies. Comparing with the available measurements of organic carbon (OC) concentrations, we found that the amount of SOA in OC is significant, with the ratio ranging from 0.1 to 0.5/0.6. The enhanced modeling system driven by global climate model output was also applied for two three-year one-month simulations (July, 2001–2003 and 2051–2053) to examine the sensitivity of SOA to future climate change. Under the future two emissions scenarios (A1B and A2), future temperature changes are predicted to increase everywhere in the U.S., but with different degrees of increase in different regions. As a result of climate change in the future, biogenic emissions are predicted to increase everywhere, with the largest increase (～20%) found in the southeastern and northwestern U.S. under the A1B scenario. Changes in SOA are not identical with those in biogenic emissions. Under the A1B scenario, the biggest increase in SOA is found over Texas, with isoprene emissions being the major contributor to SOA formation. The range of change varies from 5% over the southeast region to 26% over Texas. The changes in either biogenic emissions or SOA under the two climate scenarios are different due to the differences in climatic conditions. Our results also suggest that future SOA concentrations are also influenced by several other factors such as the partitioning coefficients, the atmospheric oxidative capability, primary organic carbon aerosols and anthropogenic emissions. |
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