Surplus production,compensation, and impact assessments of power plants

For over 60 years, fishery scientists have been using the argument that nature creates surplus, and that the surplus can be used as justification to impose anthropogenic sources of mortality (power plants, fishing, pollution, etc.) on fish populations; otherwise, it is wasted. Surplus production is closely tied to the concept of compensation, a form of density-dependent mortality in which the mortality rate of a cohort is directly related to abundance of that cohort. Scientific arguments have been put forth in assessments of power plant impacts that compensation can at least partially offset impacts imposed by power plants. Although we cannot dismiss the existence of surplus production outright, since in some years environmental conditions are such that a surplus in reproductive effort may occur, we should be assessing the reproductive effort of fish populations in the context of the ecosystem in which they reside. In terms of addressing the risks of power plant mortality, we may be at a point in collection and analyses of biological data, coupled with a greater flexibility in managing power plant technology, to modulate the risks of power plant mortality on fish populations on a more-or-less real-time basis by taking into account environmental influences. For these reasons, assessments of power plant impacts should include analyses of predation forgone and production forgone.