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| 时间序列模型在火警短期预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 仝艳时,陈鹏,疏学明,吴振波.时间序列模型在火警短期预测中的应用[J].火灾科学,2008,17(4):216-221. |
| 作者姓名： | 仝艳时 陈鹏 疏学明 吴振波 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 秦皇岛市公安消防支队,秦皇岛,066000;清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究中心,北京,100084 2. 清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究中心,北京,100084 3. 总后勤部建筑设计研究院,北京,100036 |
| 基金项目： | 科技支撑计划应急平台重大项目 |
| 摘 要： | 基于某市的119火警数据,采用时间序列模型中的ARIMA算法进行了分析.计算结果表明,该市119火警数据的天序列服从ARIMA(0,1,2)模型,周序列服从ARIMA(1,0,0)模型.从模型对数据的拟合效果来看,ARIMA模型较为准确的反映了数据序列的发展趋势.采用这两种模型对数据序列分别进行了短期的预测,其预测值与实际结果在趋势上基本一致,研究表明采用周序列预测的效果要好于天序列.基于时序模型的火警预测方法是实现时火灾应急处置中关口前移的重要措施. |
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 ARIMA模型 预测 火警 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/2/2008 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/9/27 0:00:00 |
Application of time series model in short-term prediction fire alarming |
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| TONG Yan-shi,CHEN Peng,SHU Xue-ming and WU Zhen-bo.Application of time series model in short-term prediction fire alarming[J].Fire Safety Science,2008,17(4):216-221. | |
| Authors: | TONG Yan-shi CHEN Peng SHU Xue-ming and WU Zhen-bo |
| Institution: | TONG Yan-shi1,2,CHEN Peng2,SHU Xue-ming2,WU Zhen-bo3(1.Qin Huangdao Municipal Fire Brigade,066000,China,2.Department of Engineering Physics,Center for Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,3.General Logistics Department Institute of Architectural Design , Research,100036,China) |
| Abstract: | In this paper,ARIMA algorithm of time series model is used to process the fire alarming data of one certain city.It is shown that day series of fire alarming data suit for ARIMA(0,1,2)model,while the week series suit for ARIMA(1,0,0)model.From the fitting results of the models,the trend of the data series is reflected accurately by the ARIMA models.With the models,short-term forecasting of fire alarming is made.It is certificated that the forecast and the actual results are basically the same in the trend.T... |
| Keywords: | Time series ARIMA model Forecasting Fire |
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