综合类工业园环境系统动力学仿真与调控

综合类工业园由不同行业企业组成,比单一行业类工业园在经济发展和污染排放方面具有更高的多样性与复杂性。徐州经济开发区是以装备制造业、光伏产业、医药食品电子等行业组成的综合类工业园,以徐州经济开发区为例,将系统动力学应用于工业园的管理与调控研究。针对园区的人口、经济、环境三大子系统,识别内在联系做出因果反馈图,在此基础上构造综合类生态工业园的系统动力学模型。通过仿真预测园区未来的产业发展趋势,最后设计经济型、环保型、协调发展型三种方案,通过系统仿真,对徐州经济开发区的管理和建设提出建议。

System Dynamics Simulation and Adjustment on Environment of Comprehensive Industrial Park

Comprehensive industrial park is made up of different industries, it is much more complex in economic development and pollution discharge than single industrial park. Based on XLtzhou economic development zone, which is a comprehensive industrial park made up of equipment nranufacturing industry, solar energy industry mad other industries, the paper applies system dynamics to its manage- ment adjustment. The system of the industrial park is divided into population, economy and enviromnent subsystems, and the interrelation is recognized and causal loop diagram is made, then SD model of comprehensive industrial park is formulated. By simulating the model, the development trends of different industries are predicted. Finally, three scenarios of economical mode, environment protection mode and harmonious development mode are designed and simulated , and advice on management and development of Xuzhou economic development zone is given.