战斗部飞行可靠性评估方法研究

目的 解决高可靠、小子样战斗部飞行可靠性评估时样本量不满足标准要求的问题。方法 通过对战斗部结构功能分析，建立包含壳体强度、主装药安定性及主装药正常起爆等单元的可靠性框图，并利用L-M法对战斗部系统进行可靠性评估。首先利用基准设计许用值的安全系数法将应力强度干涉模型与安全系数进行结合，对壳体强度可靠性进行评估；然后结合战斗部试验数据，利用最大熵试验法，在小样本下评估战斗部主装药安定性及正常起爆的可靠性；最后，将各单元的可靠性数据转化为成败型数据进行分析，利用L-M法，结合战斗部整机试验数据，开展战斗部飞行可靠度评估。结果 分别计算了小子样下战斗部壳体和装药安定性及正常起爆的可靠度，并将其转换为等效成功数和等效失败数，结合战斗部试验打靶等可靠性信息，综合评估了战斗部飞行可靠度。结论 充分利用战斗部在研制阶段的试验信息进行评估，减少了样本量，解决了战斗部可靠性高、样本量小的评估难题。

Reliability Assessment Method of the Flight Warhead

A reliability assessment method of the flight warhead is proposed under the limitation of the high reliability and small sample in this paper. The structural function of the warhead is analyzed, the reliability block is established with the shell strength, the stability and normal explosion of the main charge. The reliability of the warhead system is assessed by utilizing the L-M method. Firstly, the safety factor method through the allowable value of the standard design is applied, the stress interfere model and the safety factor is integrated. The reliability assessment of the shell strength is carried out. Secondly, the experiment data of the warhead is applied, the stability and normal explosion of the main charge is assessed through the maximum entropy experiment. Finally, the reliability data of the units are turned into the success or failure data, the reliability assessment of the warhead is carried out with the L-M method. The reliability of the shell strength, the stability and normal explosion of the main charge is computed under the situation of small sample. The equivalent success number and failure number is obtained, and the flight reliability of the warhead is assessed with the experiment data. The experiment data of the development stage is fully considered, the reliability assessment of the warhead with the limitation of the high reliability and small sample is carried out effectively.