基于突变级数法的地铁盾构施工安全风险评价

为使地铁盾构施工安全风险评价更科学、合理,在实践的基础上,首先将地铁盾构施工风险划分为工程本体风险、周边环境风险、施工人员作业安全风险、自然风险4大类;然后结合实际工程的特性,采用德尔菲法进行风险结构分解,并对风险部位与风险因素进行耦合分析,构建出地铁盾构施工安全风险评价指标体系;最后以南昌地铁4号线礼庄山站—西站南广场站区间盾构施工为例,将突变级数法应用于该地铁盾构施工安全风险等级评价。结果表明:该项目的工程本体风险、周边环境风险、自然风险为一般风险等级,施工人员作业安全风险为可接受风险等级,并梳理出该项目的主要风险因素。项目实施及监测数据结果表明,该评价方法有效可信,在地铁盾构施工安全风险评价中具有适用性。

Safety Risk Assessment of Subway Shield Construction Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

In order to make the safety risk assessment of metro shield construction more scientific and reasonable,on the basis of practice,this paper divides the subway shield coustruction risk into four categories:project body risk,surrounding environment risk,construction personnel operation safety risk and natural risk.Then,using the Delphi method to divide the risk structure,and combining with the project characteristics,the paper builds the risk assessment index system of subway shield construction safety by coupling risk factors and risk parts.Finally taking the shield construction between Lizhuangshan station—South Square station of west station of Nanchang Metro Line 4 as an example,the paper applies the catastrophe progression method to the safety risk assessment of metro shield construction.The paper indicates that the project's risk levels of project body,surrounding environment and nature are all general risk levels,and the construction personnel's safety risk level is acceptable risk level,and meanwhile the main risk factors of the project are sorted out.The results of project implementation and monitoring data show that the evaluation method is effective and reliable,and has applicability in the safety risk assessment of subway shield construction.