以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估

为探寻暴恐袭击高风险区域,推进公共安全精细化管理,以南疆地区为例,采用网格化社会经济数据、遥感数据和兴趣点(POI)数据等多源地理空间数据,从暴恐分子出现可能性、暴恐袭击目标选择偏好和暴恐袭击后果3个方面建立暴恐袭击风险评估指标体系,根据层次分析法(AHP)-Entropy、聚类分区等确定地理空间指标权重,最终得到南疆地区30″×30″(约1 km×1 km)细粒度的暴恐袭击风险的空间分布情况。结果表明:南疆地区的暴恐袭击高风险以上网格主要位于喀什、和田及阿克苏地区的部分市区和县城,与暴恐袭击历史事件的分布较一致,证明风险评估指标体系的合理性和可行性。

Risk assessment of regional violent terrorist attacks in southern Xinjiang

In order to examine high-risk areas of violent terrorist attacks and promote refined public security management,with southern Xinjiang,China as an example,gridded socio-economic data,remote sensing data,POI data,and other multi-source geospatial data were used to build a risk assessment indicator system of violent terrorist attacks from three aspects,namely occurrence probability of terrorists,preference of their target,and potential consequences of the attacks.Then,weights of geospatial indicators were determined according to AHP-Entropy method and cluster analysis method,and spatial distribution of attack risks on 30″×30″(approximately 1 km×1 km)fine-granulated grids in southern Xinjiang was obtained.The results show that the high-risk grids of violent terrorist attacks in the area are mainly located in some cities and towns in Kashgar,Hotan and Aksu,which are consistent with distribution of historical attack events,therefore indicating the rationality and feasibility of proposed evaluation indicator model.