液氨泄漏事故树分析及风险预测

对液氨泄漏的原因进行了系统的归类，依此绘制了液氨泄漏事故树。分析得出，管理问题的基本事件结构重要度均要大于设备故障的基本事件，对各基本事件提出了相应的防范措施。最后以甘肃某化肥厂液氨储罐为例，对事故树中管道破裂致液氨泄漏产生的危害范围进行了预测。

Ammonia leakage fault tree analysis and risk forecast

The reasons of ammonia leakage were classified systemically, the fault tree was depicted subsequently. Through analysis, the basic event structure ponderance of management problem was more important than the equipment fault, then the corresponding prevention measures were advanced. Finally, the ammonia tank of a fertilizer plant in Gansu was taken as an example, and the harmful scope which was induced by pipe break was forecasted.