季节趋势模型在气体泄漏扩散模拟预测中的应用

基于江苏工业学院油气储运安全综合实验模型平台,利用示踪技术,模拟了有害气体瞬时泄漏扩散的整个过程。结合趋势季节模型,以六号探头为研究对象,利用指数平滑法,进行时间序列预测,得到下一个时间段的有害气体扩散数据。研究表明泄漏物质浓度有下降的趋势,模型输出结果较好,拟合度高,一定程度上反映了泄漏后有害气体未来的扩散趋势。该研究结果对泄漏事故扩散趋势做出准确的预测,对建立有针对性的应急救援预案,实施有效的现场控制,具有一定的科学参考价值。

Application of Trend-season Model to Prediction of Gas-leakage Diffusion Simulation

The research was based on the experiment platform of oil-gas storage and transition security in Jiangsu polytechnic university, and it was simulated to the whole course of harmful gas-leakage diffusion using tracer technique. Ttme sequence prediction was also conducted in the course combined with trend-season model and exponential smoothing based on the 6th detector. Therefore, the diffusion data in the next period were obtained. The results indicated that the concentration of the gas showed a descending trend, and the output results as well as fitting effect of data were perfect which in certain extent reflected the potential diffusion trend of the leaked gas. The research provides an accurate prediction of the diffusion trend of the leakage accident, which would be a valuable reference and favorable in establishing relevant emergency rescue preparedness so as to implement effective field control.