能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化

基于我国能源消费和经济增长特点，采用对数平均的Divisa方法对我国1990~2007年的CO2排放进行分解分析。结果表明：经济增长效应是我国CO2排放增加的主要因素，能源强度效应是抑制CO2排放的主要原因，人口效应和结构效应对碳排放的影响不大。分地区的研究表明：东部地区的经济发展和能源强度效应对CO2排放量的影响高于中西部地区，人口效应使东部地区碳排放增加，使中西部地区碳排放降低，能源利用结构变化对东部地区的碳排放有一定的抑制作用，对中西部地区的影响较小。因此，要降低我国的CO2排放，需要针对地区特点制定不同的政策，东部地区需要进一步提升技术水平，进而提高能源利用效率，对中西部地区需要逐步改善以煤为主的能源消费结构，提高清洁能源比重，同时调整产业结构，发展服务业和技术含量高的低能耗制造业。

ENERGY CONSUMPTION|ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA——ANALYSIS BASED ON LOGARITHM MEAN DIVISA DECOMPOSURE METHOD

The paper discomposed the CO2 emissions during the period of 1990~2007 using logarithm mean Divisa method based on Chinese energy consuming and economic growth.The result indicates that economic growth effect is the main reason of the increase in CO2 emissions while energy intensity effect is the main factor to obstruct CO2 emissions.Study of different regions indicates that economic development and energy intensity effect of coastal region are stronger than that of inner land.Population effect increase CO2 emissions in coastal region while decrease the CO2 emissions in inner land.Structure effect can decrease the CO2 emissions in coastal region，but has little effect on central and western regions.Therefore，it is necessary to give different policies regarding the regional characteristics to reduce CO2 emissions.For costal region，technology levels should be promoted to raise the energy efficiency.For inner land areas，energy structure should be changed and clean energy should be introduced in order to decrease the proportion of coal，on the other hand，industrial structure should be transformed，service and low energy consuming manufactures should be encouraged.