Natural forest regrowth as a proxy variable for agricultural land abandonment in the Swiss mountains: a spatial statistical model based on geophysical and socio-economic variables |
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Authors: | Mario Gellrich Priska Baur Niklaus E Zimmermann |
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Institution: | (1) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | In many European mountain regions, natural forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and the related consequences for
the environment are issues of increasing concern. We developed a spatial statistical model based on multiple geophysical and
socio-economic variables to investigate the pattern of natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountain area between the 1980s
and 1990s. Results show that forest regrowth occurred primarily in areas with low temperature sum, intermediate steepness
and soil stoniness as well as close to forest edges and relatively close to roads. Model results suggest that regions with
weak labor markets are favored in terms of land abandonment and forest regrowth. We could not find an effect of population
change on land abandonment and forest regrowth. Therefore, we conclude that decision makers should consider non-linearities
in the pattern of forest regrowth and the fact that labor markets have an effect on land abandonment and forest regrowth when
designing measures to prevent agricultural land abandonment and natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountains. |
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Keywords: | agriculture land-use change logistic regression reforestation spatial autocorrelation |
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