基于多层次灰色评价理论的海洋输油管道安全评估方法

针对海上输油管道在多层次、多变量、多种非定量因素的影响下缺乏有效定量评估手段的情况，建立输油管道体系的多层次安全评估指标，结合层次分析法，确定各层指标对应的权重，提出采用多层次灰色理论，对输油管道体系进行安全评估，将风险影响程度进行定量化处理，给出了在役输油管道的可靠性量化结果。多层次灰色评估方法针对少数据、小样本、信息不完全和经验缺乏的不确定性问题有着计算简便、直接、科学和实用的特点，可为海上输油管道的在役安全评估提供一种有效手段。

Method of Safety Assessment of the Ocean Oil Pipeline Basis on Multilevel Gray Evaluation Theory

For offshore pipeline ill a multi-level, multi-variable, multiple non-quantitative factors, in the conditions of lack of effective means of quantitative assessment, the establishment of a multi-level system of pipeline safety evaluation index, combining analytic hierarchy process to determine the corresponding layers of indicators weight through the use of multilevel gray evaluation theory, the pipeline system for safety assessment will affect the level of risk to quantify treatment, give the quantitative results of in-service pipeline reliability. Multilevel Grey Evaluation Method has the advantage of simple, direct, scientific and practical for less data, small sample, incomplete information and lack of experience with the uncertainty calculation, and can be used to service for the offshore pipeline safety assessment.