大型原油储罐火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型及应用

随着油品储罐区规模的不断扩大,近年来多储罐火灾事故呈上升趋势。现有的储罐防火间距是在以往事故经验的基础上设定的,通过罐组内的火灾多米诺效应概率计算,可从风险的角度为罐组内储罐防火间距的设定提供理论依据。通过综合考虑火灾环境下受辐射储罐失效时间和着火储罐火灾得到控制时间,确定了罐组内火灾多米诺效应的判定原则,并在火灾得到控制时间模型和储罐失效时间模型的基础上建立了火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型。以2万立外浮顶原油储罐为例进行模拟计算,得出在现行标准给出的防火间距下,发生罐组火灾多米诺效应的概率为3.94×10-8/a-1,属于可接受风险,为罐组内储罐的合理布局提供了理论依据。

Study on fire domino effect probability of large crude oil storage tanks

With the continuous expansion of oil tank farm and single tank volume, in recent years, muhi-tanks fire accidents on the rise. The existing tank space is set on the basis of the previous accident experience. The quantita- tive calculation of domino effect probability caused by tank fire provides a theoretical basis for tank space setting. By the study of time to effective mitigation and time to failure, the domino effect impact probability model was pro- posed. Through analog computation of 2 ×10am3 floating roof tank of petroleum, the conclusion is get that the domi- no effect probability caused by tank fire in a group of tanks is 3.94 × 10 -8/a-1, is acceptable risk.