基于灰色关联分析的高层建筑火灾风险评估

为了研究高层建筑火灾风险，在综合考虑高层建筑空间火灾特点及发展过程的基础上，建立了包括安全疏散系统、建筑自身防火能力、灭火能力、消防救援设施以及安全管理五大因素的火灾风险评估指标体系，并利用灰色关联度分析法构建了高层建筑火灾系统的灰色关联评价模型。通过计算各评价指标序列和实际样本序列直接的灰色关联度，建立了系统的灰色关联矩阵，得到了各影响因素及系统整体的风险等级。利用该模型对上海市静安区胶州路728号教师公寓大楼的火灾风险进行了综合评估，结果与实际情况相符。评估结果表明，在高层建筑火灾风险评估中引入灰色关联分析方法可以得到高层建筑火灾危险性的科学数据，并进一步指出薄弱环节，对高层建筑的防火设计及日常安全管理等都具有指导意义。

Fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings based on grey relational analysis

In order to investigate the fire risk of high rise buildings, the assessment index system including evacuation system, fire proof capacities of buildings, fire fighting capacities, fire rescue facilities and safety management was established based on the characters of fire development in high rise buildings. By analyzing the grey relational degrees between each comparative sequence and the reference sequences, the risk ratings of each factor and the whole system were obtained according to the grey incidence matrix. A case study of No. 728 teachers’ apartment in Jiaozhou Road Shanghai Jing an District was conducted with this method, and the results accorded well with the facts. It proved that valuable fire risk assessment results and weak links can be obtained by this scientific grey relational method. They are of significant guidance to the design of fire protection and daily safety management for high rise buildings.