国家能源供应时空协调——基本概念、理论与方法

能源保障时空协调所表现的是国家或地区能源供应保障系统的整体发育状态。论文分析了国家矿物燃料的空间分布状态及时空协调过程。分析的结果表明:由于矿物燃料资源存在着明显的空间收敛特征,当工业化和城镇化发展不断寻求更高质量能源的消费需求时,国家能源供应保障系统的发育空间便迅速从区域或国家转向全球。换言之,只有在消费需求增长(时间过程)与供应范围有效扩展(空间过程)两者有机协调时国家能源供应保障体系才能获得正常发育。显然,只有在时空两者的发育达到了动态吻合,并具备抵御系统发育抗击各种外部环境干扰能力之时,国家或地区能源供应的保障才可能得以最终实现。

Time-Space Coordination of National Energy Supply

This study releases a fact that the national energy supply system could extend its spatial bordering as the demands for the fuels,especially oil and gas,increased and the structure of energy supply diversified.It is,therefore,that the time-space coordination of national energy supply would be a key issue for national energy security,not only because an uneven distribution of mineral resources of the world but also the changeable environments for national energy supply.According to the long-term practices of national industrialization in China,the development of time-space coordination for national energy supply could be devised as three stages: namely,local,regional and international.In 2008,for example,the average distance of fuels’ movement for the whole country climbed up to 2435 km,nearly 3 folds more than that of 1980 when the time-space coordination of national energy supply came from the regional stage to the international one.More importantly,the national energy supply has faced more and more challenges from the environments such as natural disasters and geopolitics as it growing up.For instance,the freezing and snowing disasters occurred in the early of 2008 brought about 529.8 billion yuan($76.2 billion) of economic loss only due to a seriously disturbed national coal transport and power nets systems.Such a practice in China strongly implies only when the increase of energy consumption,labeled as the time course,is coordinated with the space expansion of supply,named as the space course,effectively and reliably,can the national energy supply system develop eventually.