中国发展非粮燃料乙醇减排CO2的潜力评估

科学地评估中国发展非粮燃料乙醇减排CO₂的潜力对于制定应对气候变化措施和燃料乙醇发展政策具有重要的现实意义。论文提出了基于占地属性的燃料乙醇原料划分方法,并指出低质宜耕边际性土地与农作物副产品资源可作为占地型原料的种植空间和非占地型原料的来源。随后,构建了燃料乙醇替代的CO₂减排潜力的评估模型,并对2015年和2030年中国发展非粮乙醇的减排潜力进行了评估。评估结果表明,在2015和2030年我国非粮燃料乙醇可产生1 094.7×10⁴ t和4 902.7×10⁴ t的CO₂减排潜力,且形成以非占地型原料乙醇为主的减排结构。从减排潜力空间分布上看,我国在2015年和2030年将分别呈现出以微度、低度减排区为主和极高、高度减排区为主、"∏"型的空间结构。

The Potential of CO2 Emission Reduction by Developing Ethanol in China

The evaluation of the potential of CO2 emission reduction by developing non-corn based ethanol in China is valuable for setting up countermeasures to climate change and establishing the developing policy of ethanol.According to the land occupation feature of feedstock,the method for feedstock classification is established.The paper selects low quality arable marginal land to plant land based feedstock,as well as utilizing the byproduct of crops as sources for non-land based feedstock.Then,the evaluation model of potential of CO2 emission reduction is set up and used to perform the evaluation of potential of CO2 emission reduction in China in 2015 and 2030,respectively.The result shows that,in 2015 and 2030,China can obtain 10.947 and 49.027 million t of CO2 emission reduction potential.Moreover,it indicates that non-land based feedstock can produce more ethanol so as to get higher potential.With regard to the spatial distribution of the potential of CO2 emission reduction,the regions that contribute low and extremely low potential of emission reduction dominate the spatial pattern in 2015,as well as regions with high and extremely high potential are the majorities in 2030.In addition,the ’∏-shaped’ spatial structure is exhibited in the distribution of China’s potential for CO2 emission reduction in 2030.