环境与资源价值CV评估预测有效性研究进展

条件价值法是评估非市场产品价值的最重要方法,在环境与资源价值评估中得到广泛的应用,预测有效性是条件价值研究中最为核心的内容。论文在对环境与资源项目条件价值评估预测有效性实证研究回顾与分析的基础上,初步总结了导致CV有效性差的主要原因,认为无收入限制、温暖光辉以及"答非所问"等诸多原因均来自市场的虚拟性。介绍了提高CV预测有效性的三类主要措施,即事前措施、事后措施及事间措施。同时分析了CV预测有效性表达方式的局限性,提出应合理看待CV预测有效性的结果。

Predictive Validity of Contingent Valuation on Environment and Resource Programs:A Review

Contingent valuation(CV) is a mainstream approach to estimating valuation of nonmarket goods,especially of environmental and resource program.As contingent valuation method is on ground of a fiction market,CV validity is ongoing debated,and predictive validity is the core of debasements. CV predictive validity refers to the consistency between people’s sayings and their doings,and Calibration factor(Cf) is used as its characteristic.The closer Cf is to 1,the better CV predictive validity is. In this paper,we retrospected CV predictive validity case studies on environment and resource programs at first.Literature on Cf meta-analysis showed that CV has poor predictive validity,and attribution of the evaluated goods matter. Five factors were summarized as influencing factors of CV predictive validity: without income constraints,warm glow,irrelevant answer,strategic behavior and uncertainty.We deemed these factors could all be attributed to the hypothetical nature of CV deal market.CV hypothetical nature is the primary cause to its poor validity. Three kinds of countermeasures were introduced to improve CV predictive validity: ex ante countermeasures such as cheap talk,ex post countermeasures like follow-up certainty question,and in medias res mitigation countermeasures. We also analyzed the limitation of CV predictive validity expression.Though Cf is a good index of CV validity,good predictive is not equal to scientific.A good Cf does not mean a good CV study;it just represents the market authenticity.At the end of this paper some future research prospect were presented.We call for CV mechanism design research work to improve CV validity fundamentally.