农户有限理性土地利用行为决策影响因素——以陕西省米脂县高西沟村为例

利用有限理性理论与方法进行行为决策研究已成为多样化决策研究中的热点。研究微观尺度土地利用变化中农户有限理性行为决策的影响因素,对于揭示农户土地利用驱动因子、调整农户决策行为与优化农业景观格局具有重要的理论与现实意义。论文以陕西省米脂县高西沟村为例,通过构建农户效应收益模型,利用2009—2011年农户调查数据揭示理性最优决策与农户实际决策之间的差异性;利用体现农户行为满意度的Probit模型分析有限理性决策的影响因素。结论为:①高西沟村农户理性最优决策与实际决策差异性较大,说明农户在实践中采用有限理性进行土地利用生产;②构建Probit模型模拟农户满意度决策行为态度,选取的4类变量较好地解释了农户决策的影响因子。其中,农业收入回归系数为0.78、反映相对经济地位下降变量0.41、退耕面积-0.42、耕地面积-0.62、打工收入-0.34、性别0.48、劳动力0.31,均处于显著相关水平。各变量估计结果与理论预测和实际调查结果相符合,具有较强的解释力。

Effect of the Household Bounded Rationality Decision-making about Land Use Behavior:A Case Study for Gaoxigou Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province

Using the bounded rationality and behavior decision-making mechanism to research human decision-making behavior has become one of the hot-spots in rational diversification of Modern Economics.In this paper,we discussed the influencing factors of peasant household bounded rationality and behavior decision-making in microscopic scale of land use change.A case was studied for Gaoxigou Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province.After establishing the household income expectation model,using 2009-2011 household survey data,the differences between the rational optimal decision and the farmers’actual decision-making were indentified firstly.Then based on bounded rationality idea,using the Probit model which can better reflect the satisfaction of farmer’s decision to explain and analyze these differences and the influential factors.The conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) There is a significant difference between the rational optimal decision and the farmers’actual decision-making in Gaoxigou Village,which can illustrate that household’s bounded rationality plays an important role in decision-making.2) Constructing 0-1 dummy variable by Probit model can simulate the households behavior of decision-making attitude,and four types of variables are selected to explain the impact on household decision-making.The results revealed that the coefficient of agricultural income is 0.78,the variable that reflected the relative economic decline status is 0.41,the coefficient of the area of grain for green is-0.42,arable land is-0.62,wage income is-0.34,the coefficient of gender is 0.48,and the coefficient of labor is 0.31.All levels show the significant association,and which is in line with the comparison between theoretical predictions and actual research.