矿产资源需求拐点理论与峰值预测

矿产资源的有限性同需求快速增长之间的矛盾日趋突出。未来我国经济发展究竟需要多少矿产资源,何时到达矿产资源需求高峰,这些问题是国家制定矿产资源战略的基础。研究提出矿产资源消耗双拐点理论:一是矿产资源消耗强度达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源由粗放利用向集约利用转变;二是矿产资源消费水平达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源消费由增加向减少转变。经过逻辑推导,并以先期工业化的美国为例,追溯矿产资源消耗与经济社会发展变迁的历史轨迹来佐证了这一理论。通过比较研究,定性地判断我国未来矿产资源消耗趋势,未来5~15 a我国矿产资源需求空间仍然很大。选择BP神经网络和岭回归预测方法,综合考虑经济发展、 人口变化和科技进步等因素,基于Matlab软件实现了对我国矿产资源需求的拐点与峰值预测。预测结果显示:能源需求拐点将在"十四五"时期出现,峰值为45×10⁸~50×10⁸ t标准煤;钢铁需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为8×10⁸ t左右;铜需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为900×10⁴ t左右;铝需求拐点将在"十二五"时期出现,峰值为1 600×10⁴~1 700×10⁴ t左右。

The Inflection Point Theory of Mineral Resources Demand and Peak Forecast

The contradiction between mineral resources finiteness and rapid growth of demand became increasingly prominent.These questions such as in the future,rapid economic development requires how many mineral resources and when reaching demand peak in China,are the basis of formulating mineral resource strategy.The study proposed double inflection points theory of mineral resource consumption: on the one hand,the peak that mineral resource consumption intensity reaches corresponds with the inflection point,as mineral resources utilization transforms from the extensive to intensive;on the other hand,the peak that mineral resources consumption level reaches corresponds with the inflection point,as mineral resources consumption converts increase to reduce.After logic derivation,it support this theory by the evolution track of mineral resource consumption and the economic development in the United States.Through comparative study,it suggests that mineral resources demand in China has great potential in the next few years.Choosing the BP neural network and ridge regression forecast methods,comprehensive consideration of the economic development,population change and technology progress,based on the Matlab software,it forecasted mineral requirements and peak inflection point in China.The prediction results show that energy demand inflection point in the 14th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 4.5-5 billion tons of standard coal;steel demand inflection point in the 13th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 800 million tons;copper demand inflection point in the 13th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 9 million tons;and the peak of aluminum demand inflection point in the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 16-17 million tons.