中国城乡统筹绩效评估与城乡统筹趋势的相关性分析

基于中国2000—2009年的城乡统计数据,从人口、经济、社会、生活、资源5方面构建城乡统筹绩效评估体系,综合运用熵权法、综合评判法、关联性分析和关联度计算等方法,测算了中国城乡统筹绩效,定量评价了中国城乡统筹趋势的相关性。结果表明:总体而言,中国城乡统筹总绩效系数偏离1的程度大,中国城乡差距明显并有逐渐扩大趋势。从城乡统筹单项绩效看,城乡人口统筹和生活统筹绩效逐渐趋好,城乡经济统筹绩效不甚明显,城乡社会统筹绩效波动变化,城乡资源统筹绩效较差。通过正负关联性的计算可知,城乡统筹绩效指数的总体发展趋势与城乡人口、经济和资源统筹绩效指数的发展趋势相一致,而与城乡社会、生活统筹绩效指数的变化趋势相反。从综合指标的关联度进行分析,发现城乡统筹总绩效与城乡资源统筹绩效、城乡经济统筹绩效和城乡人口统筹绩效的关系密切,资源经济和人口是中国城乡统筹的重点。此外,中国城乡统筹还存在较大的内部差异,比如总量和平均量的差异、投入与产出间的差异、大区域之间的差异以及省际差异。

Performance Evaluation and Correlation Trend Analysis of Urban-Rural Integrated Development in China

Using the statistical data of urban and rural in 2000-2009,this paper constructed an evaluation index system from aspects of population,economy,society,life and resource,then applied methods of entropy method,comprehensive evaluation,correlation analysis,and correlation calculation to quantitatively analyze the performance and correlation trend of urban-rural integrated development in China.The result showed that the overall performance of China’s urban-rural integrated development is obvious,and has the trend of becoming larger.In aspects of individual performance of urban-rural integrated development,the population and social performance were becoming better;the economic performance was not obvious;the life performance was fluctuant,while the resource performance were poor.The positive and negative correlation calculation result showed that the overall trend of China’s urban-rural integrated development was consistent with the trends of the population,the economic and the resources performance between urban and rural,but contrary to the trends of the social and the life performance trends.The result of correlation analysis showed that the overall performance of China’s urban-rural integrated development has close relationship with the resource performance,the economic performance and the population performance,that is to say,resource,economy and population are the foci of China’s urban-rural integrated development.In addition,there were large internal differences in China’s urban-rural integrated development,such as the total and average weight differences,the input and output differences,the regional differences and the provincial differences.