国际铁矿石定价机制改变与我国铁矿石进口量变化的实证分析

随着我国对外贸易和国内钢铁企业的发展,我国铁矿石进口量大幅上升,已成为全球最大的铁矿石消费国。与此同时,国际铁矿石巨头摒弃长期协议定价机制,单方面推行季度、 指数等定价模式。为了认识国际铁矿石定价机制改变对我国铁矿石进口的影响,论文基于铁矿石进口量、 铁矿石价格、 国内原矿产量等统计指标的月度数据,通过定性分析与Granger因果检验,综合判断国际铁矿石定价机制改变与铁矿石进口量变化之间的关系。结果表明:近两年我国铁矿石进口量的短期波动频繁;国际铁矿石定价机制改变引起的铁矿石价格震荡是导致我国铁矿石进口量波动的主要动因;结合国内外形势判断,未来一段时期内我国铁矿石进口量的短期波动还会持续。

Empirical Analysis on Impacts of the New International Pricing Mechanism on Iron Ore Imports of China

With the development of China’s foreign trade and large domestic demand for iron ore,iron ore imports have risen sharply in recent years.According to statistics,by the end of 2011 the iron ore imports is 6.18×108 t,an increase of 6.7 times compared with 2001.Nowadays,China has become the largest iron ore consumer.Meanwhile,international iron ore giants abandon long agreement price mechanism,and unilateral implementation of new pricing mechanism.In order to understand the impact of new pricing mechanism on iron ore imports,using statistic and Granger cause,this paper explored the linkages between new international pricing mechanism and China’s iron ore imports.The results show that iron ore imports of China frequently fluctuated in recent years,and iron ore prices shock that caused by international iron ore pricing mechanism change,is the main drive force for China’s iron ore imports fluctuations.Furthermore,in future short-term fluctuations of China’s iron ore imports will continue.