Optimizing investment strategies for mangrove plantations by considering biological and economic parameters

Coastal deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar (formerly Burma) is addressed through the promotion of native-species mangrove plantations on cleared land formerly sustaining natural mangrove forests. To date there are no attempts to determine the optimal mangrove plantation strategy to maximize economic returns for private or communal plantation owners. We integrated empirical biological and economic data to suggest optimal mangrove plantation strategies in the region. We censused 4-yr oldAvicennia officinalis mangrove plantations in two townships to calculate survival and growth rates of mangroves planted using different techniques across an inundation gradient. We used the calculated rates to forecast the production of fuelwood, poles and posts at 10, 13 and 15 yr after establishment. We calculated the compound rate of growth for the three commodities over a 7-yr period, and then forecast commodity price for the same harvestintervals. Integration of those parameters in our model led us to conclude that both profit and the internal rate of return would be greatest for plantations of seedlings raised in polyethylene bags as opposed to bare-root or direct propagule planting. Therefore, the use of potted seedlings should be promoted, despite higher initial costs. The optimal rotation period varies according to ground level and planting technique. Optimizing economic returns for coastal plantations does not necessarily require a sacrifice of ecological benefits. Due to a discrepancy between official conversion quotes and local real value no conversion estimate in USD is given.