基于分解模型的全过程节能减排定量评价方法及应用

依据因子分解模型的分析结果,建立了全过程节能减排控制节能指数和减排指数定量化计算方法,提出全过程控制指数评价的重要原则,并对不同国家各因子的节能效果和SO2减排作用进行了定量化评价.结果表明,我国1986~2005年全过程控制节能指数只有0.6,低于发达国家1973~1990年的0.86;我国1995~2005年SO2减排指数为0.75,远低于日本1975~1996年的1.07.我国技术进步和末端治理的节能减排指数偏低,现阶段我国应加强技术进步和末端治理的减排能力建设,同时注意结构调整,发挥其应有的节能减排效果.

A quantitative evaluation method based decomposition analysis and its application on the life-cycle effect of energy conservation and emission reduction

Quantitative methods calculating life-cycle control index (LCCI) in energy conservation and emissions reduction were created by results from decomposition analysis. Evaluating principle of LCCI were also put forward and applied in quantitative evaluation results from each factor contributing to energy-saving and sulfur dioxide emission reduction in different countries. Energy conservation LCCI of China during 1986~2005 was 0.6, lower than the developed countries of 0.86 in 1973~1990, and 0.75 for sulfur dioxide emission reduction LCCI of China during 1995~2005, much lower than Japan’s 1.07 in 1975~1996. The reason was that contribution from technology progress and end-of-pipe (EOP) was low. Presently, more projects in technological progress and EOP should be taken for realization of pollutants reduction targets, as well as role of structural adjustment.