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Is “No-Threshold” a “Non-Concept”?
Authors:David J Schaeffer
Institution:(1) Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, 2200 Churchill Road, 62076 Springfield, Illinois
Abstract:A controversy prominent in scientific literature that has carried over to newspapers, magazines, and popular books is having serious social and political expressions today: “Is there, or is there not, a threshold below which exposure to a carcinogen will not induce cancer?” The distinction between establishing the existence of this threshold (which is a theoretical question) and its value (which is an experimental one) gets lost in the scientific arguments. Establishing the existence of this threshold has now become a philosophical question (and an emotional one). In this paper I qualitatively outline theoretical reasons why a threshold must exist, discuss experiments which measure thresholds on two chemicals, and describe and apply a statistical method for estimating the threshold value from exposure-response data.
Keywords:Linear dose-response model  Risk assessment  Carcinogens
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