上海市地面沉降的经济损失评估

地面沉降是普遍的城市灾害和典型的缓慢积累型地质灾害。本文首次采用工程费用法,结合修正的人力资本法,定量评估了上海市由于地面沉降而修筑黄埔江、苏州河沿岸防汛墙的经济损失,估算了地面沉降造成码头、港口受淹、市区积水、桥梁净空减少等方面的经济损失。得出上海地面沉降的经济损失总额达508470.379万元,自1921年地面沉降以来每年的经济损失为7263.626万元。研究表明,控制地面沉降不仅具有积极的环境效益,更具有显著的经济效益。

ECONOMIC COST EVALUATION OF LAND SUBSIDENCE IN SHANGHAI

Land subsidence is an ordinary urban hazard and the typical geological disaster.Based on the paststudy in land subsidence of Shanghai,the extra economic cost of flood control walls along HuangpuRiver and Shuzhou River to prevent an increase in flood risk caused by subsidence is quantitatively e-valuated with engineering cost analysis in conjunction with corrected human capital method at firsttime,and the loss in inundation of port and wharf,flooding of subsiding area,and freeboard reductionof bridges,and so on,are evaluated.As a result of study,since 1921,subsidence has lead to a totalloss of 5.1 billion yuan,72.64 million yuan per year in Shanghai,and the risk benefit of controllingsubsidence will be 1:41.It is showed that subsidence control can make not only active environmentaleffect but also significant economic benefit.