林业生态安全效率及其影响因素的DEA-Tobit模型分析——基于生态与产业共生关系

林业生态安全的资源投入产出效率及影响因素的研究利于实现林业生态安全建设资源的合理配置,促进林业生态-产业系统的共生发展.运用DEA-SBM模型和Malmquist指数模型对2005～2014年间我国31个省份的林业生态安全效率进行时空分析的基础上,借助PSR模型构建了林业生态安全效率的影响因素体系并利用Tobit模型进行回归分析.结果表明:林业产业发展更依赖于规模的扩张而不是技术水平的提升,这不利于生态安全的可持续发展.林业生态安全效率的动态波动较大且技术进步指数偏低,林业生态与林业产业的协调发展存在较大困难.在林业生态安全效率的影响因素体系中,城市化水平、森林消长比,生态林面积、单位面积森林蓄积,环境保护和生态建设财政支出等对林业生态安全效率的提升作用明显;人均资源总量,科研经费投入强度等对林业生态安全的发展产生较大影响.最后,提出了优化林业产业结构促进林业产业规模集约高效发展、加强创新提升技术效率促进林业生态与产业一体化发展、实现林业资源总量提升和公众生态文化建设的协调发展等对策.

DEA-Tobit Model Analysis of Forestry Ecological Security Efficiency and its Influencing Factors：Based on the Symbiotic Relationship between Ecology and Industry

The research on the input-output efficiency and influencing factors of forestry ecological security is conducive to rationally allocate the resources of the forestry ecological security construction and the promotion of the symbiotic development of forestry ecology industry system. Based on the spatial-temporal analysis of forestry ecological security efficiency of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2014 by using DEA-SBM model and Malmquist index model, the influencing factor system of forestry ecological security efficiency is constructed by using PSR model and regression analysis is carried out by using Tobit model. The results show that the development of forestry industry depends more on the expansion of scale than on the improvement of technical level, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of ecological security. Because the dynamic fluctuation of the efficiency of forestry ecological security is large and the index of technological progress is low, it is difficult to coordinate the development of forestry ecology and forestry industry. In the influencing factor system of forest ecological security efficiency, urbanization level, forest growth and decline ratio, ecological forest area, forest accumulation per unit area, environmental protection and ecological construction fiscal expenditure play an obvious role in improving the efficiency of forest ecological security; the total amount of per capita resources, the intensity of scientific research investment have a greater impact on the development of forest ecological security. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures, including optimizing the structure of forestry industrial to promote the intensive and efficient development of forestry industry, strengthening innovation and improving technical efficiency to promote the integrated development of forestry ecology and industry, realizing the coordinated development of the total amount of forestry resources and the construction of public ecological culture.