近34年祁连山南坡植被覆盖变化与气象因子关系研究

基于1982~2015年GIMMS NDVI数据，通过趋势线法和相关性分析方法，对祁连山南坡植被覆盖变化及影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）祁连山南坡植被覆盖整体呈显著上升趋势，线性回归增速为0.99%/10 a；各季节平均NDVI依次为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季， NDVI变化斜率排序依次为冬季>夏季>秋季>春季； NDVI月变化趋势基本一致，夏季NDVI在2004~2015年最大。（2）近34年来，祁连山南坡大部分区域属于常绿区域，三时间阶段植被增加面积整体表现出增加-减少-增加趋势，且在2004~2015年之间植被增加面积最大，占比为92.66%，增加速度最快的区域在门源县境内。（3）在影响因素方面，研究区NDVI与气温的相关性（0.58）大于降雨的相关性（0.27），研究区生长季 (4~9月)植被覆盖受气温和降水共同影响。

Study on the Relationship Between Vegetation Cover Change and Meteorological Factors in the Southern slope of Qilian Mountains in the Past 34 years

Based on the GIMMS NDVI 3g.v1 data from 1982 to 2015, the trend of vegetation cover change and its influencing factors on the southern slope of Qilian Mountain were analyzed by trend line method and correlation analysis method. The results showed that: (1) The vegetation coverage on the southern slope of Qilian Mountain showed a significant upward trend, and the linear regression growth rate was 0.99%/10a. The average NDVI in each season was summer>autumn>spring>winter, and the order of NDVI change rate was winter>summer. >Autumn>Spring; the monthly NDVI trends in each stage were basically the same, and the summer vegetation coverage was the largest in 2004-2015. (2) In the past 30 years, most of the southern slope of Qilian Mountain belongs to the evergreen area. The area of vegetation increase in the three-time period showed an increase-decrease-increased trend, and the area of vegetation increased between 2004 and 2015 was the largest. 92.66%, the fastest growing area in Menyuan County. (3) From 1982 to 2015, the correlation between NDVI and temperature in the study area (0.58) was greater than that of rainfall (0.27). The vegetation cover in the growing season (April-September) of the study area was affected by both temperature and precipitation.