长江经济带水污染密集型产业时空格局演变及影响因素研究

水污染密集型产业布局的科学性是长江经济带水资源保护有效性的基础与前提，本文通过界定12个行业为水污染密集型产业，利用偏离份额、基尼系数、区位商探析长江经济带水污染密集型产业时空格局演变，并进一步建立面板回归模型从传统地理区位因素、新经济地理因素与制度因素分析其对长江经济带水污染密集型产业时空格局演化的影响。研究发现：（1）从时间趋势来看：水污染密集型产业占长江经济带工业总产值比重基本呈现逐步下降的趋势，但是占全国污染密集型产业比重小幅下降后呈上升态势，行业偏离份额结果显示2003~2016年间水污染密集型产业内部行业发展出现分化，化工产业结构调整效果明显，具有衰退的态势，“化工围江”问题在逐步改善。（2）从空间演变特征看：基尼系数显示水污染密集型产业呈现扩散态势；区位商与区域偏离份额进一步验证了水污染密集型产业具有由下游向中上游地区转移与扩散的趋势尤其是承接产业基础较好的中游地区。（3）经济因素、劳动力成本、基础设施是驱动长江经济带水污染密集型产业空间布局演化的主要因素。

Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Water Pollution Intensive Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The scientific of water pollution-intensive industry layout is the basis and premise of water resources protection effectiveness in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. By defining 12 industries as water pollution-intensive industries, using the deviation share, Gini coefficient and location quotient to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the water pollution intensive industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt , Furthermore, we establish the panel regression model to analyze its influencing factors from the influence of traditional geographical location factors, new economic geography factors and institutional factors. The study found that: (1) From the time trend: the proportion of water pollution-intensive industries to total industrial in the Yangtze River Economic Belt’s value has gradually declined, but the proportion of pollution-intensive industries in the country has declined slightly. The industry shift share results show that the industry development of water pollution-intensive industries has differentiated between 2003 and 2016. The chemical industry is in the situation of recession, The problem of “chemical surrounding the river” is gradually improving. (2) From the characteristics of spatial evolution: the Gini coefficient shows that the water pollution-intensive industry is spreading. The location quotient and regional shift share further verified that the water pollution-intensive industries have a tendency to transfer and spread from the downstream to the middle and upper reaches, especially in the midstream areas with good industrial bases.（3）Economic factors, labor costs, and infrastructure are the main factors driving the spatial layout of water pollution-intensive industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.