循环经济视角下原生和再生资源消费的动态分析

从循环经济视角出发,聚焦这种新经济模式下原生资源和再生资源的动态关系,以世界铅资源为实证对象,利用1974-2006年世界铅资源的相关时间序列数据组织样本,基于协整关系分析构建VAR模型,在VAR模型框架下研究原生铅产量和再生铅产量对来自不同冲击的脉冲响应函数和方差分解。研究结果表明:原生铅产量、再生铅产量与铅消费总量之间存在着一个协整关系。这意味着在当前经济系统中,对铅资源是刚性需求,没有有效替代品,其供给的途径只有原生铅和再生铅两种。另外,对于来自市场消费规模、原生和再生铅产量的变动冲击,再生铅所做出的响应比原生铅更富有弹性,这一结论可以很好的阐释为什么再生资源市场比原生资源市场波动大的现象。

Dynamic Analysis of Consumption of Primary Resource and Secondary Resource Based on Circular Economy:An Empirical Study on World Lead

Starting from the perspective of circular economy, the article focuses on the dynamic relationship between primary resource and secondary resource in the new economic mode. An empirical study on world lead has been completed by using the related time series data from 1974 to 2006 and a VAR (Vecter Autoregression estimation) model is constructed based on the co-integration analysis. Then under VAR framework, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of primary lead production and secondary lead production from different impulses are conducted. The empirical results show that a co-integration relationship exists among primary lead production, secondary lead production and the total consumption of lead, which suggests that there is a rigid requirement for lead in current economic system and there is no substitutes except the only two supply ways: primary lead and secondary lead. In addition, facing the impact of change in consumption scale of market, production of primary and secondary lead, the response of secondary lead is of more elasticity than that of primary lead. This conclusion can be well explained why the secondary resource markets are often claimed to be more volatile than primary resource markets.