秦岭南北地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

利用秦岭南北地区1960~2016年47个气象站点的观测资料，运用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、相关分析与反距离加权插值等方法分析了秦岭南北地区光、热、水等农业气候资源的时空变化特征。结果表明：1960年以来，秦岭南北地区气温、≥10℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势，1995年后气温快速上升，并在2002年增温达到显著水平。春、冬、秋季增温明显，空间上秦岭以北增温倾向率大于秦岭以南。 1960~2016年，秦岭南北地区降水量总体呈微弱下降趋势，从时间上看，1995年前降水量以下降为主，1995年后降水量转为上升趋势；从空间上看，1960~2016年，下降较明显地区为秦岭以北、嘉陵江沿线，其次为汉水流域丹江口水库区域；部分地区呈现微弱上升趋势，主要分布在巴巫谷地、汉水流域大巴山等山地段和秦岭南坡东部。相对湿度呈微弱下降趋势；日照时数呈显著下降趋势，四季下降程度为夏>冬>秋>春，下降显著地区为研究区东部平原、汉中盆地、关中盆地及巴巫谷地。 关键词： 农业气候资源，时空变化，秦岭南北地区

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Agricultural Climatic Resources in the #br# Northern and Southern Regions of the Qinling Mountains#br#

Based on the observation data of 47 meteorological stations in the North and South Qinling Mountains from 1960 to 2016, the spatio temporal variations of agricultural climate resources such as light, heat and water in the north and south of Qinling were analyzed by methods of climate propensity index, Mann Kendall trend test, correlation analysis and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The results show that since 1960, the temperature and the active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ in the northern and southern areas of Qinling have a significant increase trend. After 1995, the temperature has risen rapidly and reached a significant level in 2002. The temperature increased obviously in spring, winter and autumn, and the tendency of increasing temperature in the north of Qinling Mountain was more than the south of Qinling Mountain in space. From 1960 to 2016, precipitation in the north and south Qinling Mountains showed a slight downward trend overall. In terms of time, the precipitation was mainly reduced before 1995, after that, the precipitation gradually increased. In the perspective of space, from 1960 to 2016, the precipitation showed a relatively obvious decline in the regions including the north areas of Qinling mountains, along the Jialing River and the Danjiangkou reservoir area of the Hanjing River drainage area. Some areas show a slight upward trend, mainly in the Bawu Valley, the Daba mountain section of the Hanshui valley and the eastern part of the southern slope of the Qinling Mountains. In the recent 57 years, the relative humidity in the north and south Qinling Mountains showed a slight downward trend, and the degree of decline in recent years has increased. There is a significant decline for the sunshine duration. The sorting order to reduce of the sunshine hours of four seasons is summer,winter,autumn and spring. Significantly decreased areas are mainly distributed in the eastern plain of the study area, Hanzhong Basin, Guanzhong Basin and Bawu Valley. Key words：agricultural climate resources; temporal and spatial changes; the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains