生态示范区可持续发展指标体系和数学模型--以安徽省岳西县国家级生态示范区为例

为评价、监控和考核生态示范区可持续发展水平、进程和成效，构建了一套量化评价指标体系和指数叠加、功效系数、模糊综合评价等三种数学模型，并以安徽省岳西县国家级生态示范区为例研究生态示范区多时空尺度的可持续发展态势。结果表明在基准水平年（2000）、近期目标年（2005）和远景目标年（2010）生态示范区复合系统的可持续发展度（0.268、0.541、0.859）、可持续功效系数（0.711、0.812、0.949）和可持续发展隶属度（0.129、0.332、\{0.671\}）都逐步增加，而且在不同规划年限中均以自然子系统可持续发展态势为最优，这与该县生态环境优越、经济社会水平低、发展潜力大的客观实际非常符合。

A PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABILITY OF ECOLOGICAL DEMONSTRATION AREA--A CASE STUDY ON YUEXI COUNTY, ANHUI PROVINCE

In order to evaluate, monitor and examine the level, process and efficiency of developmental sustainability of ecological demonstration area, a set of quantified indicator system and three types of mathematical methods (such as indices weighed coupling method, efficacy target value method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method)are constructed in this paper. Yuexi County, one of the 3rd national ecological demonstration areas is taken as a case study. The values of developmental sustainability for the integrated system and three subsystems (economic, natural and social) in datum year (2000), near future year (2005) and long-term target year (2010) by above indicator system and mathematic models are dovetailed to the present condition and future trend of this study area. As a result, this pilot research will be valuable in enriching the quantified theory of ecological demonstration area and guiding construction practices of Yuexi County's ecological demonstration area.