基于灰平面的事故预测方法研究

基于灰色系统理论中的灰平面概念 ,构建某一指定点的邻域系GM(1,1)系列模型 ,由模型的解得出原始数列的预测值范围 ,即灰平面并用实例比较分析了模型的精度。研究表明 ,基于灰平面的事故预测方法的优势是所需数据少 ,编程计算简便 ,模型精度较高 ,可以预测系统行为特征值未来发展的范围 ,是一种值得推广的预测方法。

Study on Method for Accident Prediction Based on Grey Panel

Based on the concept of the grey plane in Grey System Theory, a series of GM (1,1) models of the nearby cluster of one specified point were established. The prediction value of the original numerical sequence obtained from the solution of these models was the grey plane, which was exemplified to verify the precision of the models. The results showed that this accident prediction method has advantages of only using few data, easy-to-compute, higher precision and ability to predict perspective range. It is worthy to spread its application.