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Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision making
Authors:Kenneth H Reckhow
Institution:(1) School of the Environment, Duke University, 27708-0328 Durham, North Carolina, USA
Abstract:Uncertainty in environmental decision making should not be thought of as a problem that is best ignored. In fact, as is illustrated in a simple example, we often informally make use of awareness of uncertainty by hedging decisions away from large losses. This hedging can be made explicit and formalized using the methods of decision analysis. While scientific uncertainty is undesirable, it can still be useful in environmental management as it provides a basis for the need to fund additional monitoring, experimentation, or information acquisition to improve the scientific basis for decisions.
Keywords:Uncertainty  Decision making  Decision analysis  Risk  Safety factors  Water quality management
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