1951~2014年中国北方地区气温突变与变暖停滞的时空变异性

基于1951~2014年中国北方及周边地区357个气象站点平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温年（月）数据，采用M~K检验等方法，分析了中国北方地区3类气温突变和变暖停滞特征的时空变异性.结果表明：研究区3类气温整体突变年（1978~1999年、1981~2002年、1981~2005年）、分布广泛的普遍突变年（1988年、1989年、1997年）及范围（3a）均依次变晚.整体上，突变年随纬度降低变晚，东北突变早于西北和华北地区.变暖停滞集中于1998和2007年及其前后，3类气温亦依次变晚（1994~2007年、1995~2009年、1998~2010年），由黄河流域中段向其他方向越来越晚.突变至变暖停滞周期整体随纬度降低缩短（3~30a），突变越早周期越长.西北地区突变与变暖停滞前后各时段均值温差最大（2.4℃），温差在1℃左右站点分布最广泛.各时段升（降）温速率整体依次在0.01℃/10a、0.05℃/10a、-0.03℃/10a左右站点分布最广泛，突变后升温最快（0.02~0.16℃/10a），且西北地区对升温贡献最大，变暖停滞后东北地区对降温贡献最大，2时段按平均最低气温、平均最高气温、平均气温顺序升（降）温速率递减.3类气温波动程度减弱，整体随纬度降低.高纬度、高海拔和山地地区突变和变暖停滞较周边地区偏早或偏晚，特征值较大.整个北方地区3类气温突变、变暖停滞、突变与变暖停滞时间及各时段特征值各自具有自身一致性的普遍规律.

Spatiotemporal variation of the temperature mutation and warming hiatus over northern China during 1951~2014

Based on the annual (monthly) data of average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature at 357 meteorological stations of northern China and the surrounding region from 1951 to 2014, the detection methods, such as Mann-Kendall, are adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of the three types of temperature mutation and the warming hiatus. The results indicated that the total mutation year of the three types of temperature (1978 to 1999, 1981 to 2002 and 1981 to 2005), the general mutation year widely distributed (1988, 1989 and 1997) and the range (3a) were delayed one by one. Overall, mutation year gradually got late with the latitude. The mutation of northeastern China was earlier than that of northwestern and northern China. Warming hiatus was mainly in 1998 and 2007 and before or after the year of 1998 (2007). Three types of temperature also became later in turn (1994 to 2007, 1995 to 2009 and 1998 to 2010) from the middle of the Yellow River basin to other directions. The cycle from mutation to warm hiatus was gradually shortened with the latitude (3~30a). The earlier the mutation occurred, the longer of the cycle. The average temperature difference between the mutation and warming hiatus of northwestern China was the highest (2.4℃). Meteorological stations, where the temperature difference was 1℃,were the most widely distributed. The stations, at which the increase (decrease) temperature rate in each time period was generally 0.01℃/10a, 0.05℃/10a, -0.03℃/10a, were the most widely distributed. After the mutation, the temperature increased fastest(0.02~0.16℃/10a). The northwestern China contributed most to the heating. However, after the warming hiatus, the northeastern China contributed most to the cooling. In those two periods, heating (cooling) rate decreases in turn according to the order of average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average temperature. The change degree of the three types of temperature gradually decreases with the latitude as a whole. In the areas of high latitudes, high altitudes and mountains, the temperature mutation and the warming hiatus were earlier or later than surrounding areas, eigenvalues were larger. The time and eigenvalues of each period about three types of temperature mutation, warming hiatus as well as mutation and warming hiatus respectively had the universal law of consistency throughout the entire northern China.