| 光伏出力的模糊区间预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈云龙,殷豪,黄强,周亚武. 光伏出力的模糊区间预测[J]. 防灾减灾工程学报, 2017, 0(5): 39-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈云龙 殷豪 黄强 周亚武 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东工业大学自动化学院,广东广州 510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省科技计划项目(2016A010104016)；广东电网公司科技项目(GDKLQQ20152066)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对光伏输出功率的点预测精度不足、传统支持向量机(SVM)在参数优化方面存在的固有缺陷等问题,根据模糊信息粒化理论和纵横交叉算法,提出一种基于CSO-SVM和模糊信息粒化理论的光伏出力模糊区间预测方案。结果表明:该方案可以得到较好的点预测值及其置信区间,某种程度上解决了传统点预测结果的信息局限性。
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| 关 键 词： | 区间预测；支持向量机(SVM)；模糊信息粒化；置信区间 |
Fuzzy interval prediction of photovoltaic output power |
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| CHEN Yunlong,YIN Hao,HUANG Qiang,ZHOU Yawu. Fuzzy interval prediction of photovoltaic output power[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2017, 0(5): 39-44 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yunlong YIN Hao HUANG Qiang ZHOU Yawu |
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| Affiliation: | School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 5 10006, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the problems that the point prediction accuracy of photovoltaic output power isinsufficient and the inherent defects of traditional support vector machine (SVM) in terms of parameteroptimization, puts forward a scheme of fuzzy interval prediction of photovoltaic output based oncrisscross optimization algorithm (CSO)-SVM and fuzzy information granulation theory. The resultsshow that the proposed scheme can obtain better prediction value and its confidence interval, and in acertain degree reduce the information limitation of the traditional point prediction. |
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