计及风速与风机故障相关性的概率潮流计算

针对计及风速与风机故障不确定性及相关性的风电并网电力系统概率潮流计算问题,基于Nataf变换建立了能够同时考虑风速、风机故障不确定性和相关性的风电场出力模型,提出一种可灵活处理风速与风机故障相关性的MonteCarlo概率潮流计算方法,并引入“拉丁超立方抽样”技术提高抽样效率,降低计算复杂度。仿真结果表明:该方法能反映风电场出力的实际情况,合理评估风电并网对电力系统概率潮流的影响,有助于风电场的选址及电网规划。

Probabilistic power flow algorithm of considering the correlations betweenwind speed and failure of wind turbines

Aiming at the problem of the power system probabilistic load flow(PLF) analysis in view ofindeterminacy and pertinency of wind speed and failure of wind turbine generators( WTG) when windpower integration, establishes wind farm power output model based on Nataf transform and consideringthe indeterminacy and pertinency of wind speeds and failure of WTG, puts forward a Monte Carlo PLFanalysis method which can flexibly deal with the correlation between wind speed and WTG failure,and introduces the'' I atin hypercube sampling'' method to improve sampling efficiency and decreasethe computation complexity. The simulation result shows that the method can reflect the practicalsituation of the wind farm power output, rationally estimate the influence of wind power integration onPLF, helps to the wind farm site selection and power grid planning.