The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

Evidence indicates that the concentration of stratospheric ozone has already decreased globally over the past several years and additional decreases are to be expected over the coming decades. A further depletion of the ozone layer would lead to an increase in the amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation. One of the adverse effects of particularly UV-B radiation on human health would be an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. In this study an integrated model is presented to assist in assessing the changes in skin cancer incidences in relation to changes in the amount of stratospheric ozone, for the Netherlands and Australia. Although surrounded by large uncertainties, model results show that, in view of the several delay mechanisms and, additionally, the ageing of the population, future increases in skin cancer incidence cannot be reversed.