环鄱阳湖地区旅游产业-城镇化-生态环境交互耦合的定量比较及演化分析

根据旅游、城镇化、生态环境3个子系统交互耦合的作用机理,构建鄱阳湖地区旅游产业-城镇化-生态环境复合系统的评价指标体系,引入协调发展度模型,定量测算了1999~2013年鄱阳湖地区的协调发展度,根据测算结果对鄱阳湖地区的协调发展状况进行整体评价及6个城市(南昌、景德镇、九江、鹰潭、抚州、上饶)的对比分析。结果表明:整体上鄱阳湖地区协调发展度呈上升趋势,但旅游和城镇化相对滞后导致其平均水平仍处于初级协调阶段,协调水平有待提升,6市之间的协调发展水平差异明显,且特征各异,城镇化和旅游业发展与生态环境之间的矛盾是制约鄱阳湖地区协调发展的主要因素,未来鄱阳湖地区应在坚持修复和改善生态环境的基础上,加快旅游业发展和城镇化进程,从而实现鄱阳湖地区旅游产业、城镇化、生态环境的全面协调和快速提升。

THE QUANTITATIVE COMPARISON AND EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS ON INTERACTIVE COUPLING AMONG TOURISM,URBANIZATION AND ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT IN POYANG LAKE AREA

Based on the coupling mechanism of three subsystem of tourism,urbanization and ecological environment,this paper builds evaluation index of the complex system,introduces the model of coordinated development degree,to make quantitative analysis for the coordinated development degree of Poyang Lake area from 1999 to 2013. According to the calculation result, then evaluating coordinated development of the whole Poyang Lake area,and compared the coordinated development degree of the six cities (Nanchang,Jingdezhen,Jiujiang,Yingtan,Fuzhou,Shangrao). the coordinated development degree of Poyang Lake area shows a rising trend on the whole from 1999 to 2013,however,the result also shows that average level of Poyang Lake area is still at primary coordination phases on account of hysteresis of tourism and urbanization,coordinated development level needs to be improved. There is a clear difference between the six cities and the features are absolutely different. The contradiction of the development of urbanization,tourism and ecological environment is the main constraint in Poyang Lake area.in the future,it should maintain improving and restoring ecological environment, prior to accelerating development of tourism and process of urbanization,so as torealize Comprehensive coordination and rapid promotion of tourism,urbanization and ecological environment in Poyang Lake area.